+4H.png)
Sunday 29 March 2009
+4H.png)
+4H.png)
+4H.png)
+4H.png)
+4H.png)
+4H.png)
+4H.png)
+4H.png)
+4H.png)
+4H.png)
+4H.png)
+4H.png)
+4H.png)
+4H.png)
+4H.png)
+4H.png)
+4H.png)
+4H.png)
+4H.png)
+4H.png)
Sunday 22 March 2009
EURUSD Top-Down Review
Summary
Weekly: Mixed/Bullish
Daily : Neutral/Bearish
4 Hour: Bullish
1 Hour: Bullish
Weekly Timeframe
+W.png)
Price has formed a double-bottom pattern. Movements have been so fierce that fast moving averages still show price to be in a downward trend. Looking at the longer time horizon, this downward move is consistent with a deep retracement to the 78.6% fibonacci level associated with the bullish trend from 2006 to 2008. A move to the 38.2% at 1.436 will indicate bullish sentiment; a move below the 61.8% level at 1.332 will suggest a continuation of the downward trend.
Indicators are becoming bullish.
Daily Timeframe
+D.png)
Price has been in a downward trend with a recent pullback to 61.8% fib level at 0.146. However, since then, price has failed to make newer lows and is now in the neuatral zone between 38.2% and 23.6% - prices 0.137 and 0.132 respectively.
4 Hour Timeframe
+4H.png)
Price is in an upward trend, with next target at 1.397.
1 Hour Timeframe
+1H.png)
Price has been in a strong uptrend and is now consolidating in a range from 1.510 to 1.374. Price has held during weakening momentum, and the indicators are starting to become more bullish.
NZDUSD Top-Down Review
Summary
Weekly: Bearish
Daily : Mixed
4 Hour: Bullish
1 Hour: Mixed
Weekly Timeframe
+W.png)
Since mid-2008 price has been in a downward trend. Recently price has been retracing and it has just touched the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level at 0.563.
Daily Timeframe
+D.png)
Price has been in a downward trend but has rallied strongly this month, and has just touched the 61.8% retracement level. A breach of this level would indicate a potential reversal with the expectation that price would reach at least the 78.6% retracement level at 0.5836. A downward bounce would expect to take price to at least the 38.2% level at 0.5352. Price has made an asymmetric double bottom, but there is no significant divergence with the indicators. The stochastic is over-extended.
4 Hour Timeframe
+4H.png)
Price has been in an upward trend and is curently forming a consolidation pattern.
+4H+2.png)
1 Hour Timeframe
+1H.png)
Price is in an upward trend with retracements into the 10-20 MA "buy-zone" with occasional deeper bounces at the 50MA. Price is currently facing resistance at 0.563. This would be an ideal setup for a breakout if it were not for the weakening momentum which increases the risk that the breakout will fail.
+4H.png)
+4H.png)
+4H.png)
+4H.png)
+4H.png)
+4H.png)
+4H.png)
+4H.png)
+4H.png)
+4H.png)
EURJPY Top -Down Review
Summary
Weekly: Mixed
Daily : Neautral
4 Hour: Neutral
1 Hour: Bullish
Weekly Timeframe
+W.png)
Price has been in a steep decline and is now up the upper region of a consolidation range (112.2 to 131.1). The consolidation pattern is consistent with a continued bearish outlook. However, a break above the 131.1 level would be consistent with the pattern being a double-bottom reversal. Price is currently at 130.28, so this key level should be tested soon.
Daily Timeframe
+D.png)
The daily view shows the consolidation region in more detail. Price is currently setting up for a potential bullish breakout, with converging indicators.
4 Hour Timeframe
+4H.png)
From late February through to the 2nd week of March, price was trading in a 610 pip range with an upper bound at 126.09. This level of resistance was breached and a 610 upward move has just completed.
Technically price is still in an upward trend, but given that it has just reached its target price , a period of consolidation or retracement is the most likely outcome.
1 Hour Timeframe
+1H.png)
Price is in an upward trend. The indicators do not show any significant weakness in momentum, or divergence.
USDCHF Top-Down Review
Summary
Weekly: Neutral
Daily : Neutral/Bearish
4 Hour: Bearish
1 Hour: Bearish
Weekly Timeframe
+W.png)
Price is trading with large volatility within a range 1.036 to 1.230.
Daily Timeframe
+D.png)
The long-term view is that price is moving within a deep-retracement range following up upward trend last year, and any clear direction will require a breach of the levels shown in solid blue on the chart.
Price has recently been in a wide ascending wedge formation following a upward trend. Unlike flags, which pullback against the trend, these wedge formations tend to be bearish in nature, and over the last week price has fallen rapidly out of the pattern.
4 Hour Timeframe
+4H.png)
Price has been trading in a 500 pip range since the end of January. The lower bound of that range has recently been breached. Currently the price is consolidating around 1.12. A break below this level may see a price move down to 1.087.
1 Hour Timeframe
+1H.png)
Price is in a downward trend. A recent failure to make a lower low indicates the potential for either a retracement or a consolidation region followed by breakout.
Saturday 21 March 2009
GBPUSD Top-Down Review
Summary
Weekly: Bearish
Daily : Neautral
4 Hour: Neutral
1 Hour: Bullish
Weekly Timeframe
+W2.png)
Price is in a bearish trend, bouncing off the 10 week moving average (black dotted curve on the chart). Indicators show weakening downward momentum. Price has recently failed to make a new low, indicating a consolidation pattern in the range 1.35 - 1.50.
Daily Timeframe
+D2.png)
Since late 2008 price has been moving in a downward channel. This week price broke upward from the channel. This channel breakout may be indicative of a change of bias in price action. However, the move is still only consistent with a pullback from the recent low, and the stochastic is starting to look over-extended (over bought). I would like to see a number of events happen to confirm the bias change:
1. Price closing above the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level, at 1.481.
2. A pullback to the upper level of the price channel with the channel line acting as support
3. A break above the swing high at 1.50.
4. A pullback to the 1.50 level, with the level acting as support
Points (2)-(4) are shown as the green projection lines below:
+D.png)
If price re-engages in the channel, then we may see the pair moving down to the 1.30 level.
4 Hour Timeframe
+4H.png)
Price is contained within a range is from 1.44 to 1.46. A break above 1.46 will confirm continuation of the recent bullish trend, but may meet resistance at 1.466 before having some clear space to move to 1.50. A reversal in price action requires price to form a new low below 1.44 and a new high below 1.46.
1 Hour Timeframe
+1H.png)
Price is contained within a consolidation pattern within a bullish trend. The consolidation range is from 1.44 to 1.46. There is no indication of negative divergence.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)