NZDUSD Top-Down Review

Summary
Weekly: Bearish
Daily : Mixed
4 Hour: Bullish
1 Hour: Mixed


Weekly Timeframe



Since mid-2008 price has been in a downward trend. Recently price has been retracing and it has just touched the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level at 0.563.

Daily Timeframe



Price has been in a downward trend but has rallied strongly this month, and has just touched the 61.8% retracement level. A breach of this level would indicate a potential reversal with the expectation that price would reach at least the 78.6% retracement level at 0.5836. A downward bounce would expect to take price to at least the 38.2% level at 0.5352. Price has made an asymmetric double bottom, but there is no significant divergence with the indicators. The stochastic is over-extended.

4 Hour Timeframe



Price has been in an upward trend and is curently forming a consolidation pattern.



1 Hour Timeframe



Price is in an upward trend with retracements into the 10-20 MA "buy-zone" with occasional deeper bounces at the 50MA. Price is currently facing resistance at 0.563. This would be an ideal setup for a breakout if it were not for the weakening momentum which increases the risk that the breakout will fail.